The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1.
NOAA’s report predicts an “above average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Dr Rick Spinrad.
According to NOAA’s 2024 outlook, there is an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal season, 10 per cent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 per cent chance of a below-normal season. Of these predictions made, NOAA said its forecasters are 70 per cent confident in these ranges.
The hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The upcoming season is expected to have above average activity due to a variety of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation, Spinrad said.
As one of the strongest El Niños ever observed nears its end, NOAA predicts a quick transition to La Niña conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because these conditions tend to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
Additionally, this hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce easterly winds that seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms, NOAA said.
Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear and minimize ocean cooling.
“Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge,” NOAA said. “Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.”
During Thursday’s press conference, NOAA also released the list of 2024 hurricane names.
These names can be applied to hurricanes, tropical storms and other systems that originate in the Atlantic Ocean.
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tara
Valerie
William
(CBS News)
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