A very active season is in store for the tropical Atlantic, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted Thursday as it delivered its annual forecast for the 2024 hurricane season.
This season has an 85 percent chance of being above average, according to the US agency.
NOAA is forecasting between 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In its statement, NOAA said forecasters have 70 per cent confidence in these ranges.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.”
NOAA added that as one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity.
It explained, “La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.” (BT/NOAA)
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