The scenario of the frog in cool water that slowly comes to boil is often used as a metaphor for people who do not adapt to gradual change and by the time they do, it is often too late to escape the circumstance.
Some have argued that this is the situation confronting Barbados and its approach to crime and violence. The number of homicides in this country is expected to reach a number hitherto not experienced since crime figures were being recorded.
Some 49 people have lost their lives to violence of some kind, with the majority from fatal gun shot wounds. If the skeletal remains discovered in a wooded area of St John last week are confirmed to be those of two men who were travelling in a vehicle that was later found abandoned and riddled with bullets, the murder figures come in at 51.
Crime and violence are complex issues, the roots of which are often deeply connected to social, economic and generational circumstances of perpetrators and some victims.
The country is at the crossroads, vacillating at some of the highest levels on what is acceptable and what is not. The moral lines are blurred, and frankly, the goal posts for standards of conduct have been lowered to the point where people are of the belief that anything goes and if enough people are doing it, then that is all that is required.
The scourge of gun violence has become a pall enveloping the island, and its negative impact has been slowly expanding. The response of Barbadians has been one of concern but that is quietly escalating to worry.
What is also particularly disturbing is the eroding trust and confidence Barbadians have in institutions that this country has relied on to maintain law and order.
It is unfortunate that so many citizens want proof that what they are being told is the complete story on matters of consequence. Too often, the statements of politicians, law enforcement, business leaders, and even doctors are being routinely questioned.
There seems to be an automatic suspicion that information is being withheld or that someone of influence is being protected, or that information is being selectively released or couched to shape public sentiment on an issue.
Outside of those fears, there are many socio-economic concerns that emanate from rising levels of violent crime in our island.
The assertions are not new but having them come from respected multilateral financial institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) strengthens the credibility of the claims.
Rodrigo Valdés is a Chilean economist and has been the Director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the IMF since May 2023, and Ilan Goldfajn, a Brazilian, a former IMF senior official who assumed the presidency of the IDB in 2022, offered some insightful thoughts on the impact of violent crime in Latin America and the Caribbean.
In an IMF blog on the subject, Valdés and Goldfajn highlighted the debilitating effects of violent crime on the economy of a country.
“It discourages investment, reduces tourism, and drives emigration, further weakening economic resilience and constraining the region’s future growth. IMF research reveals that crime hampers innovation and reduces firm productivity, compounding economic stagnation over time.
“Leveraging geo-localised data on nightlights, the study finds that halving homicide rates in violent municipalities could increase their economic output by up to 30 percent.
“At the regional level, as shown in last year’s IMF research, reducing homicide rates to the global average could boost Latin America and the Caribbean’s annual GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points.”
Conversely, the two economists, warned that macroeconomic instability often fuelled spikes in violence. They added that a recession in Latin America and the Caribbean is associated with a six per cent increase in homicides the following year, while inflation spikes above 10 per cent are linked to a 10 per cent rise in homicides the year after.
An important consideration for us in Barbados is the assertion from Valdés and Goldfajn that growing inequality further exacerbates the link between economic stagnation and crime.
While Barbados pursues a multifaceted approach to its crime fight, there are structural economic issues linked to increased crime that must also be addressed with urgency.
The post The economy, wealth distribution and crime appeared first on Barbados Today.
