A University of the West Indies campus principal has described US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policy as “reckless”, “deeply flawed”, and “economically damaging”.
Professor Justin Robinson, principal of the University of the West Indies’ Five Islands Campus, said the Trump administration’s formula for calculating the tariffs is based on an uninformed approach to rectifying trade imbalances.
“This tariff strategy conflates trade deficits with trade unfairness—an error long discredited in serious economic circles. Not every trade imbalance is a result of malice or manipulation. Sometimes, US goods are simply too expensive or irrelevant for consumers in developing countries,” Robinson said in a statement he sent to Barbados TODAY.
“As economic historian Adam Tooze rightly points out, ‘this is not serious trade policy or grand strategy . . . it’s a grotesque parody.’ The implications are far-reaching and costly.”
Professor Robinson said that the formula behind the tariffs is simple but deeply flawed. With this formula, the US will calculate tariffs based on each country’s 2024 trade-in-goods deficit with the US, then divide that figure by the country’s total imports to produce a so-called “deficit ratio.” This number is then halved to determine the tariff rate. Under this model, he explained, China faces a 34 per cent tariff, Cambodia 49 per cent, and Lesotho—an already struggling developing nation—a staggering 50 per cent.
“It is a blunt instrument wielded without regard for nuance, trade history, or economic development goals,” Robinson stressed.
These tariffs will likely drive up the cost of consumer goods, since they effectively act as a tax on imports, he said. “Domestic producers, no longer facing foreign competition, will mark up prices as well. Consumers, especially lower-income households, will feel the pinch in every shopping aisle.”
However, Robinson said, he doubts they will produce the effect Trump hopes for, that is, a significant resurgence in US-based manufacturing.
“The idea that a 30–50 per cent tariff will make US-based production viable for low-margin, labour-intensive goods like textiles ignores both economic fundamentals and workforce realities. Factories can’t be magicked into existence. Skilled labour isn’t built overnight. Capital investment won’t flood in unless there’s long-term policy stability. And for some goods— like electricity imports from Canada or aluminium dependent on Quebec’s hydropower—substitution simply isn’t an option.”
Robinson said the tariffs may well lead to the creation of numerous trade vacuums around the world, as countries and businesses rush to do all in their power to protect and grow their economies in the face of the disruptions.
“Countries with lower tariffs, like the Philippines at 17 per cent, will absorb industries fleeing higher-tariff nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam. This creates a race to the bottom for labour standards. Companies will resort to complex workarounds—rerouting goods through third countries like the UK to exploit lower tariffs, manipulating transfer pricing, and setting up shell entities. Like sanctions, tariffs always invite creative evasion, adding bureaucratic and financial costs.
“As the US erects barriers, others will build bridges. A potential China–Japan–Korea economic zone is just one example. Trump’s tariffs could isolate the US from the very networks shaping 21st-century trade,” Robinson said.
(SB)
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