As the US-China trade war intensifies, Caribbean nations watch with growing concern, aware that a global economic slowdown could be on the horizon. Such a downturn would have direct implications for the region—particularly for tourism-dependent economies like Barbados. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council’s 2023 data, tourism accounted for nearly US$1.2 billion or about 24 per cent of Barbados’ GDP, underscoring the sector’s critical role.
Beyond tourism, economic uncertainty may also curb foreign direct investment in the region. However, this shifting geopolitical landscape could open new doors. As China looks to lessen its reliance on the United States, the Caribbean has an opportunity to position itself within Beijing’s broader trade network.
While the United States’ developmental role in the Caribbean has waned—despite continued expectations of loyalty—China has been stepping into the gap. One notable channel is the Digital Silk Road (DSR), part of China’s wider Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013. Whereas the BRI focuses on physical infrastructure like roads and ports, the DSR targets digital development by expanding internet access, telecom infrastructure, data centres, and emerging technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and smart cities.
Together, the BRI and DSR reflect China’s strategy to reshape global trade and connectivity—offering both opportunities and challenges. For the Caribbean, this shift presents a chance to modernise digital infrastructure and strengthen economic ties. However, it also raises pressing concerns around debt sustainability, cybersecurity, and geopolitical influence.
For Barbados and the wider Caribbean, the dilemma of choosing between the eagle (the United States) and the dragon (China) is becoming increasingly complex. A decision that may have been more straightforward 20 to 30 years ago is now clouded by deepening technological dependencies and shifting strategic realities. In a world where China has emerged as the global hub for manufacturing and digital development—and is assertively advancing its geopolitical agenda—it is becoming more difficult to uphold Barbados’ long-standing foreign policy stance, first articulated by the late prime minister Errol Barrow (who served from 1966 to 1976 and again from 1986 to 1987) and now echoed across the region: “friends of all, satellites of none.”
Meanwhile, Chinese brands are steadily gaining ground in Caribbean markets, exporting everything from smartphones like OnePlus and Xiaomi to electric vehicles from BYD and Geely. Their appeal lies in affordability and performance, providing consumers with competitive alternatives to traditional Western products. This growing presence is reshaping regional economic dynamics at a time when the United States is witnessing a decline in both its economic dominance and regional influence.
Adding to the disruption, the recent launch of DeepSeek—an advanced AI tool rivalling OpenAI’s ChatGPT—sparked a noticeable drop in the US stock market, signalling Washington’s growing concern about losing its edge in key technological domains, particularly to China.
In response, the US has escalated its strategy beyond tariffs by targeting the backbone of global commerce—logistics. New charges on Chinese-manufactured cargo ships are not just designed to make Chinese goods more expensive; they aim to disrupt the flow of China’s economic engine. In a world where modern business relies heavily on seamless shipping and supply chains, this move strikes at the heart of China’s manufacturing dominance. It’s a calculated effort to preserve what remains of US industrial leverage—even as Chinese innovation continues to accelerate on the global stage.
Given the current state of global geopolitics—particularly the escalating US-China trade war and America’s growing anxiety over losing its technological dominance in areas such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence—I have three key concerns from a technological perspective and what they could mean for the Caribbean:
1. The Digital Divide
The Caribbean continues to lag behind developed nations in digital transformation. China’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) presents an attractive opportunity to bridge this gap by improving connectivity and offering low-cost digital infrastructure, often through concessional loans. For many Caribbean nations, this could be a critical step towards modernising outdated systems and enabling broader digital inclusion.
2. Digital Sovereignty
In today’s geopolitical climate, the region’s overreliance on foreign-controlled digital infrastructure poses serious risks—ranging from economic disruption to national security vulnerabilities and even the threat of digital sanctions. While I was once sceptical of proposals for Barbados to house a major data centre—given the challenges of energy reliability, cooling systems, and technical capacity—it’s becoming clear that regional control over digital assets is no longer optional, but a strategic necessity.
3. Technological Fragmentation and Restricted Collaboration
As technological decoupling between the US and China accelerates, Caribbean countries may find themselves pressured to choose between competing ecosystems—whether in 5G, AI platforms, or cloud services. This fragmentation could disrupt regional integration, hinder innovation, and reduce access to international research partnerships and funding. Institutions may also find themselves isolated due to perceived geopolitical alignments, limiting collaboration with global academic or technical networks.
However, deepening technological ties with China may carry unintended geopolitical costs. The United States could interpret this shift as a realignment of regional loyalty—responding not only with economic pressure but also by withdrawing critical security cooperation. For a region already grappling with transnational crime and drug trafficking, the loss of US assistance would be a serious blow.
Equally at risk is the Caribbean’s access to initiatives like the Caribbean Basin Initiative, which grants duty-free entry to US markets—an essential policy lever that helps buffer our economies against overreliance on tourism. In navigating this delicate balancing act, Caribbean leaders must weigh short-term digital gains against long-term geopolitical risks. The choices made today will not only shape the region’s digital future—but also determine its strategic independence.
Steven Williams is the executive director of Sunisle Technology Solutions and the principal consultant at Data Privacy and Management Advisory Services. He is a former IT advisor to the Government’s Law Review Commission, focusing on the draft Cybercrime bill. He holds an MBA from the University of Durham and is certified as a chief information security officer by the EC Council and as a data protection officer by the Professional Evaluation and Certification Board (PECB). Steven can be reached at Mobile: 246-233-0090; Email: steven@dataprivacy.bb
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