There are times when we wish for what we believe were the good old days – when life was simple, disagreements could be settled easily because they were less complex, and people were more likely to listen to reason.
It is why the comments of political and social leaders seem so powerful. The late National Hero, our first Prime Minister and father of Independence, the Right Excellent Errol Walton Barrow, remarked that Barbados will be “friends of all and satellites of none”.
It is an ideal, but in reality, it is almost impossible. There have been and will continue to be times when Barbados and its leaders will have to toe the line, despite any principled positions on the issue of the day.
As we close the curtains on 2023, our focus will inevitably turn to what we may confront as a country in 2024. Given the turbulence we experienced this year, the usual hope and optimism will likely collide with the realities of our current existence.
At the global level, the war in Gaza involving Israel and Hamas continues to be a divisive conflict as Israel is accused of killing more than 20 000 Palestinians in its plan to “destroy” Hamas.
While most people condemned the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel in which some 1 200 people were killed and more than 200 kidnapped, global sentiment, including CARICOM’s, has shifted significantly against Israel.
The Jewish state is now accused of a genocidal war aimed at destroying Palestinian people through bombs, starvation and disease.
Around many dinner tables this year’s end will be discussions on how this war may impact us economically and our foreign relations with Israel as well as Middle Eastern countries like United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, whom we are actively courting for foreign investment and tourism.
Already, the war is causing consternation for cargo shipping, with one of the world’s largest shipping firms saying the Suez Canal has become “too dangerous”. Hapag-Lloyd said this week it will not resume its use of the Suez Canal despite an international military operation to keep the area safe.
This, coupled with the climate-related challenges affecting the Panama Canal where water levels have fallen, thus restricting the passage of ships, will likely result in increases in the cost of most imported goods.
Then there is the troublesome matter of Venezuela and its claim on two-thirds of Guyana’s territory. We applauded the swift intervention of CARICOM under the leadership of St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves to hammer out the Argyle Declaration of peace between the two regional territories.
The two leaders agreed not to engage in any act of hostility. However, the decision of the United Kingdom to dispatch HMS Trent, an offshore patrol vessel, to take part in joint exercises in Guyana’s waters has thrown a spanner in the works. Venezuela has now ordered thousands of troops to the border it shares with Guyana.
Yes, these are all examples of what could portend for us in the new year. Though there have been several wins for Barbados in our fight back from the economic pall of the pandemic, it is unlikely to be smooth sailing in the coming year.
Head of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute for Social and Economic Studies at the Cave Hill Campus of the University of the West Indies Professor Don Marshall has put Barbadians on notice.
“I think that 2024 will be a very critical year for Barbados. This year, 2023, was about post-pandemic recovery and we are seeing restoration of business activity approaching pre-COVID-19 levels. With that said, there is a need for urgent address of youth unemployment. This should be priority number one in terms of full economic recovery and, by extension, the need for more decent jobs.”
A source of concern for average Barbadians is our level of debt, specifically our foreign obligations and our ability to repay. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already indicated that the $14 billion in debt obligations face high risks. The good news, however, is that the IMF believes the current debt level is sustainable.
It would be naive to think that life will be linear, or that we should not be hopeful. However, it is clear that we are obligated to position ourselves to face the challenges that are likely to come our way in 2024.
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