And you thought last year was bad.
You had all reason and science to think so. The El Niño phenomenon was the key contributor to last year’s record-breaking temperatures here and everywhere in the world. But El Niño is all but gone; its opposite, La Niña, is on the rise.
Above-normal temperatures are still forecast for the northern hemisphere summer. And what’s worse, La Niña contributes to the ‘perfect storm’ of climate conditions for birthing Atlantic hurricanes.
And on Tuesday, roughly halfway through the month of May, we sweltered through a scorcher as temperatures soared to 33°C, tying the hottest mark so far this year. But brace yourselves – the real misery is yet to come. Meteorologists warn that this excessive heat wave, fuelled by record-warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures during La Niña will intensify in the coming months. A blistering peak of 35°C is projected to bake the land through October.
The Walker circulation, named for the 20th-century English physicist Sir Gilbert Walker, is a cyclic movement of air in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that has three phases: neutral, El Niño, and La Niña. The Walker circulation’s strength is a major factor in determining if it’s in an El Niño or La Niña period. But climate change has resulted in a faster cycling through these natural extremes.
The transition between El Niño and La Niña typically occurs every three to seven years, with La Niña events often lasting longer than the El Niño phases. Forecasters anticipate a fast shift to La Niña conditions by late summer 2024 following the strong 2023-2024 El Niño event.
Sabu Best, the director of the Barbados Meteorological Services summed it up ominously: “If you live close to the sea like the south coast, it’s rough and it’s going to get worse…It’s going to be rough.” Periods of heat indices (what it will feel like) between 40-50°C are expected, with little relief even at night from the relentless mugginess.
This harsh new reality is no mere nuisance – it’s downright dangerous, especially for the elderly, children, and outdoor workers. We would do well to monitor daily forecasts (assuming they will change the format from merely parroting maximum and minimum temperature), heed heat advisories, stay hydrated, and know the signs of heat illness. Tragically, we can likely expect more heat-related deaths and hospitalisations in the months ahead.
The extreme temperatures are set to deal another heavy blow to farming. Drought conditions have already prompted an Agricultural Drought Warning for parishes like St Lucy and Christ Church. Struggling farmers face the prospect of withered crops and livestock stress as this punishing dry spell drags on with below-normal rainfall projected island-wide.
Water reserves are also being strained, with the Barbados Water Authority reporting falling levels typical of the dry season. A Hydrological Drought Watch is in effect at least through June, with the prospect of mandatory water rationing on the horizon if conditions persist or worsen.
So let us face the heat of truth – this endless ‘summer’ of oppressive heat and the cascading impacts on health, agriculture, electricity and water supplies is our new normal thanks to human-caused climate change. There is no going back. Even if global emissions were to plummet tomorrow, we are locked into decades more of intensifying heat extremes.
We must fully adapt to this hotter new reality. What would be so archaic about reviving and adapting the colonial-era uniform of broad-brimmed hats for our school children’s sun protection? Perhaps we would rather complain about the heat with typical Barbadian machismo and stoicism, impressing no one, subjecting our youngsters to everything from heat stroke to skin cancer.
Would it be old hat to turn drought-resistant farming practices, water conservation measures and climate-smart farming into policy? Should our health and safety workplace regulators not enforce the provision of water, shade and breaks for workers in our farms and fields, beaches and building sites? Ought we wait for people to drop to their deaths first for our law and policymakers to rise to the moment?
If we must be stubborn, let it be in a nationwide strategy of resilience that respects the intensifying power of the sun while adapting to our survival. Yet, adaptation ought not to rest solely in the hands of civil servants and business executives. Reviving ancient tropical traditions in our clothing, architecture and lifestyle should not be cause for mockery – unless we fancy laughing at the dinosaurs.
The real heat is coming. It will be merciless. It will test our mettle as a people as never before. The test is whether we are prepared not only to weather hurricanes or merely to endure misery but to adapt, adopt, and adjust to a harsh climate through vigilance, self-reliance and cooperation.
Our only choice is to evolve with the searing scorch – the heat will always be with us from now on.
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