The nation’s top weather watcher has predicted that seven of the 22 named storms expected to cross the Atlantic this season will head towards the Eastern Caribbean with greater intensity.
And the chances of a cyclone’s direct hit on Barbados are on the rise, said Director of the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) Sabu Best.
He also urged the nation to brace for record-breaking heat through September, fluctuating rainfall and the likelihood of sudden extreme weather for which no warning may be possible.
In a special video online review of past seasons and the BMS’ prognosis for this season that officially starts on June 1, Best urged Barbadians not to focus on the number of storms but on the fact that they are above average and that it only takes one of them to cause widespread devastation.
Best said: “The centre of these systems have been passing closer to Barbados during the last few years. We have to be ready. This is the first thing that it means for us. These systems are developing early in the season. Therefore, they are forming further south. We are seeing more tropical cyclones, and if you are seeing more and more, it is more than likely the odds are increasing that you can be impacted.
“So, we are looking for a really intense hurricane season. It’s not that we focus on the actual number of how many. It only takes one. The fact there are going to be so many, that means the odds are higher.”
The BMS’ experimental models arrived at seven named storms, four of which become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes.
“But I don’t want you to focus on the number,” Best stressed. “What is important here is to understand that even in our area where there will be development of tropical cyclones, that is going to be above average.”
While there will be early warnings for major events such as storms or hurricanes, there will be little or no notice of severe thunderstorms which can happen in minutes, the BMS director added, suggesting that residents should keep vigilance for changes in the atmosphere.
He suggested citizens use the BMS app on their smartphones or check its social media pages.
“One of the best things someone told me that they do, is to use their senses,” said the weather expert. “Have a look outside. If outside looks a little grey and strange, have a look at the forecast.”
On the island’s rainfall accumulations during the wet season that also begins on June 1, he said he expected “a bit of a see-saw” from average to above-average levels.
“If there are a lot of systems to develop and pass north of Barbados, that could cut off a lot of the rainfall, normal wide-scale rainfall events,” the lead forecaster said. “And you will see a lot more isolated pockets of heavy rainfall events. That’s what we had last year. So, you see a disparity [in] rainfall accumulation across various sections of the island. We are confident that’s going to happen again this year.”
He explained that this means there will be flooding in some sections of the country and not in others.
Turning to the heat wave gripping the island, Best predicted that last year’s record peak of 34.2 degrees Celsius may be broken this season.
He said: “This year, the peak already above average of peak maximum temperatures . . . [combined] with the fact that the oceans are warmer, it’s possible we could get really close to that record or even break it this year.”
Best cautioned that the nights are going to get increasingly uncomfortable as even the average minimum low temperatures will rise.
“Bridgetown is going to be hotter because it is a built-up area and higher elevations will be a little bit cooler during the day,” he said. “September is the peak of our heat season especially when you have storms that are passing north and cutting off the air supply. We expect temperatures to actually soar comfortably . . . 34 and possibly peaking at 35 degrees Celsius in the Bridgetown and urban areas.
“In the centre of the island, it actually is going to have maximums of 30 or 31, that’s kind of really high . . . maybe a degree . . . a degree and a half above what is actually normal. So, it’s going to be hot. It is a case where we have to understand what is coming.”
Best cautioned that September is going to be “really hot, really warm, and can be uncomfortable, especially at nights in September. We have to be ready for that, and having that knowledge, you know what’s coming, you can prepare for it.”
The met office chief advised people and organisations to ensure they have emergency plans in place for the immediate onset of such extreme events as a severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall and even a tsunami.
emmanueljoseph@barbadostoday.bb
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